2009年6月27日星期六

熱帶氣旋警告信號表現 - 蓮花及浪卡


(For the English version of this post, please refer to the one I posted earlier)

蓮花和浪卡經已離我們而去,現在就讓我們來回顧天文台處理它們的表現吧 ! 這一篇將會是頗為主觀的文章,但我們歡迎各位的意見。同時由於這為事後文章,或者會給你馬後砲的感覺吧 :)


蓮花路徑圖

浪卡路徑圖




強烈熱帶風暴 蓮花

#1 戒備信號:
在 2009/06/20 10:40 am 發出,於香港東南偏東 370 公里 (STS)
在 2009/06/21 5:45 am 取消,於香港以東 420 公里 (STS)

時間準繩度6
效用8
更高信號提示10
取消7


不發出 #3 強風信號:

適當性10


其他分數:

預測路徑準繩度6
整體表現8


對發出信號的意見:

時間準繩度: 並不是太差的時間,但天文台於正式發出信號前曾有一個更好的機會。於19日的晚上蓮花曾有幾次向西北跳動,天文台亦於19日至20日凌晨升格蓮花為強烈熱帶風暴。如果天文台把握這個機會,它將有更好的原因來支持發出信號的決定。最終蓮花沒有繼續向西北走,而發出信號的時間亦幾乎為氣旋最接近香港的時候了。

效用: 這個略嫌遲來的戒備信號應有效告知人們海面或會有湧浪。

更高信號提示: 天文台20日整天皆表示當天不需要發出更高信號。由於氣旋遠離本港,這也是一個合理的決定。

取消: 天文台可能看見蓮花已達香港的緯度,突然轉向偏西行走幾乎沒有可能,於是決定解除戒備信號。但是蓮花卻沒有隨信號的解除而快速離開,於21日期間維持於香港 600 公里內。

不發出更高信號: 由於蓮花距離香港尚遠,所以無需發出 #3 強風信號。

最後評語:

由天文台初時的路徑圖,看來它們對於蓮花逐漸離開香港的路徑頗有信心,而它們亦一度把路徑調東至經過呂宋海峽。但由於蓮花北折,天文台可能認為不發 #1 的潛在危險增加,於是最終仍要發出戒備信號。話雖如此,由於蓮花移動速度頗慢,天文台應有足夠時間去作出任何決定。可是,至於內部怎樣定義戒備信號則仍是一個謎了。



熱帶風暴 浪卡

#1 戒備信號:
在 2009/06/26 7:15 am 發出,於香港東南偏南 420 公里 (TS)

時間準繩度5
效用7
更高信號提示8
取消-

#1 強風信號:
在 2009/06/26 3:40 pm 發出,於香港東南 220 公里 (TS)
在 2009/06/27 5:45 am 取消,於香港東北偏北 90 公里 (TD)

時間準繩度8
效用6
更高信號提示10
取消9

不發出 #8 烈風或暴風信號

適當性10

其他評分:

預測路徑準繩度7
整體表現7

對發出信號的意見:

時間準繩度: 戒備信號發出得比較遲,早出晚歸的人士未必知道香港即將受熱帶氣旋影響。浪卡移動快速,戒備信號可考慮於更早時間發出。強風信號時間則把握得不錯。

效用: 這次的戒備信號看來是作為提升至強風信號的基本步驟,而強風信號則由於氣旋太接近香港而必須發出。但由於浪卡實在太弱,香港各區風勢不算強勁,這個強風信號可能會是近年來最弱的一個。

更高信號提示: 在戒備信號發出後,天文台說明下午早段前不用改發更高信號,而到了下午早段天文台則因為浪卡逐漸靠近而需要在兩三小時內考慮發出。結果強風信號於下午中後段發出,整體來說沒有問題。天文台於發出強風信號後非常聰明地指出發出更高信號的條件,但不幸地被某些傳媒刪減相關字詞。

取消: 由於26至27日午夜後只有大老山和昂平兩個高地間中錄得強風,天文台取消強風信號的時間亦相當合理,甚至可以於較早時間取消。

不發出更高信號: 由於浪卡實在太弱,更高信號無需發出。

最後評語:

浪卡的路徑跟去年的風神極為相近,可能天文台汲取去年的教訓,今年能比其他氣象局早把路徑西移,但整體誤差仍略嫌太高。這個可能是歷史上最弱的強風信號之一,但由於浪卡的登陸點非常接近香港,這亦不失為一個安全的做法。

How did the Observatory fare in signal issuance for Linfa and Nangka?


Now that Linfa and Nangka are gone, let's review them and see how well the Observatory performed in these two cases. Before reading further, just mind you that unavoidably this has to be a rather subjective article - but as always we welcome your comments. :)


Track of Linfa

Track of Nangka



Severe Tropical Storm Linfa

#1 Standby Signal:
Issued at 10:40 am on 20th June 2009 @ 370 km ESE of HK (STS)
Cancelled at 5:45 am on 21st June 2009 @ 420 km E of HK (STS)

Timing6
Effectiveness8
Higher signal indication10
Cancelling7

Not issuing #3 Strong Wind Signal

Appropriateness10

Some other scores:

Forecast track accuracy6
General performance8

Comments about the signals:

Timing: Not a terrible timing for issuing the #1 signal, but the Observatory had a better choice before that. Linfa was travelling north in the night of 19th, and there were obvious NW jogs in the interim. The structure of Linfa was improving that night and the Observatory upgraded it into a severe tropical storm near midnight between 19th and 20th. The Observatory would have better justification if it had decided to issue at that time, rather than at quite an embarrassing 10:40 am which was almost the time that the storm ceased NW movements and that of the closest point of approach.

Effectiveness: This #1 was enough to warn people offshore to take care of the possible swells.

Higher signal indication: The Observatory said that #3 would not be necessary on the 20th and, well, that was a good enough indication wasn't it? The storm did not cause any more trouble to the signal-issuing agency as it moved away from us later the day.

Cancelling: I think that the Observatory lifted the signal because it reached the latitude of Hong Kong, i.e. 22.3 degrees North, and due west movement is extremely unlikely. However, in terms of distance from Hong Kong, the storm did not move away quickly from Hong Kong after the signal was removed, and in fact remained within 600 km from Hong Kong throughout June 21st.

Not issuing a higher signal: There couldn't be any doubt about it - by no means was a #3 necessary.

Verdict:

It seems that the Observatory was quite confident that it would move away from HK as seen from its earlier forecasts. However it finally succumbed to its poleward turn and as it jogs NW while it intensified it became increasingly difficult for them not to issue the signal. Nevertheless the storm moved slowly and in any case the Observatory would have sufficient time to make its decision. It remained a question as to what the internal requirements for #1 to be issued are.



Tropical Storm Nangka

#1 Standby Signal:
Issued at 7:15 am on 26th June 2009 @ 420 km SSE of HK (TS)

Timing5
Effectiveness7
Higher signal indication8
Cancelling-

#3 Strong Wind Signal
Issed at 3:40 pm on 26th June 2009 @ 220 km SE of HK (TS)
Cancelled at 5:45 am on 27th June 2009 @ 90 km NNE of HK (TD)

Timing8
Effectiveness6
Higher signal indication10
Cancelling9

Not issuing #8 Gale or Storm Signal

Appropriateness10

Some other scores:

Forecast track accuracy7
General performance7

Comments about the signals:

Timing: #1 was a bit late - for those who have already left home for work or school, they might not even know that a storm is coming their way. Based on the high speed of the storm, #1 should have been issued earlier although it was a marginal TS. For the #3 signal the decision was probably OK.

Effectiveness: The #1 mainly served as a basis for the upgrade to #3. For #3, the correct signal was issued based on its proximity to Hong Kong; however it turned out that the storm was so weak that this might be one of the weakest #3 signals ever issued.

Higher signal indication: The Observatory was in general consistent in announcing the possibility of #3 when it issued #1 - it first said that "#3 not likely in the morning and early afternoon", and when afternoon came it was evident that Nangka would be close enough to justify a #3, hence the words "will consider in 2-3 hours". Finally #3 was raised two hours later. For the possibility of higher signals after #3 was issued, the Observatory was very smart to add a condition for #8 to be necessitated, but unfortunately, in an attempt to save time and words, some media truncated the condition and simply referred to the chance of #8 as slim.

Cancelling: A reasonable time to lift the #3 signal - in fact only Tate's Cairn and Ngong Ping (both on very high grounds) recorded sustained strong winds after midnight. Could have been lowered even earlier, but there were no problems for the chosen time 5:45 am either.

Not issuing a higher signal: #8 was absolutely not necessary in this case.

Verdict:

Perhaps inspired by Fengshen last year, the Observatory was one of the earliest (among the international community) to revise its track westward and westward, but on absolute scale the track error was rather large (but not unacceptable), and hence I give it a rating of 7. It was a bit unlucky for it being one of the calmest #3 signals, but it's always better safe than sorry right?

2009年6月21日星期日

夏至 Summer Solstice


今日為一年一度的夏至,為北(南)半球所有地區日照最長(短)的日子。下圖為今天香港時間 16:57 的晝夜平分線 :

Today is the day of the summer solstice for the northern hemisphere. It means that every place in the northern hemisphere has the longest sunlight duration of the year and every place in the southern hemisphere has the shortest sunlight duration of the year. The following is a plot of the terminator at 16:57 Hong Kong Time today:



由上圖可見,北極全日有日光,而南極則整天在黑夜裡。這情況會維持至 9 月尾秋分附近為止。

As you can see from the above plot, the North Pole receives sunlight for 24 hours a day while the South Pole receives nothing, and this will continue until the autumnal equinox that is in late September.

天文學上,"至" 為太陽的赤緯 (Declination)之絕對值達到最高的一天。請再次觀看上圖 - 今天太陽的赤緯達到 23.44 度,這也是黃道與地球赤道的夾角 (黃赤交角):

Astronomically, the solstices are also the time when the Sun reaches the greatest declination in absolute value. Refer again to the above plot - you see that the declination of the Sun is 23.44 degrees - which is equal to the angle between the eliptic plane and the Earth's equatorial plane, also known as the obliquity of the ecliptic:

大致上太陽的赤緯為太陽直射地球的緯度,由冬至的 -23.44度逐步北移至夏至的23.44度,這代表今天過後太陽直射點將逐漸南移回赤道,繼而到達南半球。

Roughly speaking, the declination of the Sun is the latitude at which the Sun strikes on Earth, which varies from 23.44 degrees South (i.e. -23.44 degrees) on December solstice and 23.44 degrees North on June solstice. So this means that after today, the sunsolar point (i.e. the point that the sun strikes) will be on its journey towards the equator and back to the Southern hemisphere later this year.

那麼你可能會問為甚麼最熱的時間不在夏至? 原因是總熱量還沒有到達頂點。雖然今天北半球所接收的熱量理論上為全年最高,但總熱量於今天過後還在上升,因為太陽仍然在赤道以北一段距離。7月下旬後,當太陽回到較南位置時,地面所失的熱量將會比接收的為多,所以平均氣溫在 7 月尾才開始下跌 (當然,香港於七月受高壓脊覆蓋而長期天晴,自然亦會有較多能量到達)。

So you may ask, "why the hottest time of the year is not on the June solstice?" This is because the total heat received has not reached its highest point. Although theoretically today is the day that the Northern Hemisphere receives the most heat, the "cumulative heat content" over the hemisphere is still rising after today because we are still absorbing more heat than we are losing after today. Only after late July is the Sun sufficiently south that we start to receive less heat than we lose; and thus the hottest time is usually in July (of course, July is the hottest month in HK not only because of this reason - HK is often affected by ridges in July which bring fine weather to us, allowing more solar heat to enter).

我們可以看看香港今天見到的天球,焦點放在太陽身上:

It's also constructive to look at the celestial sphere as seen in Hong Kong today, focussing on the Sun:


太陽於香港天頂以北經過,代表香港的緯度 (22.3 N) 比今天太陽的赤緯 (23.44 N) 要南;但北京的情況就不同:

The Sun actually passes north of zenith (directly overhead) of Hong Kong. This means that Hong Kong is at a location South of that the Sun strikes (or the declination) today, which is true because our latitude is 22.3 degrees North compared to the solar declination of 23.44 degrees North. The same isn't true for Beijing, for example:




在北京,今天太陽於天頂以南經過,亦代表北京的緯度 (39.9 N) 比今天太陽的赤緯 (23.44 N) 要北。

As we see that the Sun culminates (i.e. at the highest altitude) South of zenith in Beijing. This confirms with the observation that Beijing is North of the declination of the Sun today - its latitude is 39.9 degrees North.

從天文台的網頁可見,今天日出為於 5 時 40 分,而日落為 19 時 10 分,日光時間達 13.5 小時之久,這亦是香港最長的日光時間,從明日開始將會逐漸下跌直到本年 12 月 21 日 (冬至)。

Referring to the Observatory's website, the Sun rises at 5:40 and sets at 19:10 HKT today, for a sunlight duration of 13.5 hours. This is the maximum that we can get and it will start to diminish all the way until the winter solstice on Dec 21, 2009.

今天先說到這裡,並祝各位父親節快樂。

So much for now and, by the way, happy father's day!